Climate change, social and economic threats : Present and future
April 2007

Human activities now occur on a scale that is starting to interfere with natural systems such as the global climate. Because climate change is such a complex and challenging issue, policymakers need an objective source of information about the causes of climate change, its potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts, and possible response options.

Recognizing the problem of potential global climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. It is open to all members of the
UN and WMO.

The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.

Climate change will affect health in many ways but mostly adversely. Experts estimate that estimate that approximately half the excess deaths during the severe European heatwave of 2003 were due to the warming trend induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Several reports have also shown that climate change might now be affecting some infectious diseases, although experts declare that no one study is conclusive.

They add that in the future, global warming could also affect regional food yields and water supplies with knock-on effects for health. For example, modelling of climate change effects on cereal grain yields later this century indicates a 5-10% increase in the global number of underfed people.

The advent of changes in global climate signals that we are now living beyond Earth's capacity to absorb a major waste product: anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The resultant risks to health (and other environmental and societal outcomes) are anticipated to compound over time as climate change--along with other large-scale environmental and social changes--continues.

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. The Earth's average surface temperature has risen by 0.76° C since 1850. Most of the warming that has occurred over the last 50 years is very likely to have been caused by human activities.

A rapid warming of the planet is under way, with the threat of far-reaching environmental changes that could have very severe impacts on societies across the world. Experts blame the warming trend on greenhouse gases emitted by human activities since the Industrial Revolution.

In Europe, energy and transport are the biggest sources. The European Union has been in the vanguard of international action on climate change and is committed to taking decisive measures to control it. The Kyoto Protocol is an important first step towards reversing the build-up of gases. We need to go further to reduce global emissions significantly. The European Union believes that the global temperature rise should be limited to no more than 2⁰ C above the pre-industrial level in order to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. Among the numerous initiatives it is taking to reduce emissions, the EU has pioneered the world’s first international greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme.

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